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Asia goes back to basics to meet production targets
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Discussion
Shell & Big Oil's Exploration Challenge - have they neglected bread-and-butter exploration for lower risk, lower return engineering projects?
(Dow Jones Newswires)
by Matthew Curtin |Dow Jones Newswires|Monday, January 25, 2010
The oil business
used to be simple. Find oil. Drill hole. Sell oil. Buy Stetson and private jet.
These
days, you have to corral an army of engineers in the desert to build an enormous
factory to transform natural gas into a liquid to be used like oil. The capital cost
of Royal Dutch Shell's Pearl gas-to-liquids plant in Qatar is a cool $18 billion
or more -- 10% of its market capitalization. Like Chevron's Gorgon liquefied natural
gas project offshore Australia, it shows what big integrated oil companies are capable
of.
But have they neglected bread-and-butter exploration for lower risk, lower return
engineering projects? Certainly, investors are unimpressed. A decade ago, the international
oil companies (IOCs) accounted for 79% of energy sector market capitalization and
nearly all its net income. Today the figures are 53% and 62%, according to Sanford
C. Bernstein. Shell trades at a discount of 13% and 36% respectively to the 2010
forward price earnings multiples at Petroleo Brasileiro and BG Group. But their estimated
five-year average output growth is 5% and 9% compared with Shell's 3%, around the
IOC average.
If there is a premium on growth, why have the IOCs not spent more on
exploration? The question is a little unfair. The majors are so big they spend billions
simply replacing the barrels they produce. Geopolitics and resource nationalism have
narrowed growth options.
It takes a big discovery to move the needle. Shell more
than doubled its exploration budget to $1.4 billion between 2004 and 2008 when it
represented 3% of net cash from operations. But contrast that with the 16% of net
cash from operations spent by the smaller BG which has made exciting finds offshore
Brazil, alongside Petrobras, and West Africa. That's why Bernstein analyst Neil McMahon
questions whether IOC executives have sufficiently examined the merits of exploration
over one-off engineering marvels. Facilities like Pearl have to be built on giant,
long-life gas fields which are rare.
Intriguingly, Shell, scaling back development
of its Canadian high-cost tar sands operation, has bumped up its exploration budget
to $3 billion, around 10% of capex. But could it spend even more? With their huge
upfront cost sunk in 2011, Shell's two Qatar projects will generate $4 billion a
year in cash flow. They will be nicely geared to any rise in oil prices at a modest
unit cost of $6 per barrel of oil equivalent. Few IOCs may be as well placed as Shell
to take on more exploration risk.
Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Asia goes back to basics to meet production targets
Several Southeast Asian oil & gas players declining oil reserves and production have been underscored by Indonesia’s quitting OPEC, Malaysia’s aggressive exploration and development overseas and Brunei’s capping of oil production deliberately to extend life of the fields and to improve recovery rates. Today industry leaders in Southeast Asia, however, want to reverse the downward trend in production.
“The prolonged lack of success in discovering hydrocarbon is costing us a lot of money,” Petronas Chief Executive Datuk Shamsul Azhar Abbas said, adding that the push now is focused more on Malaysia, with savings from overseas exploration to be spent on domestic production and extracting more from existing wells.
“The way we manage the business has to change. We have to go back to basics. We have to change our behavior, and to do that we have to change our structure,” he said.
Abbas said oil exploration in Malaysia would see Petronas drill deeper for oil and gas in the shallow waters, but that the company also wants to increase the amount of oil it produces out from existing wells.
Meanwhile in Indonesia, there is also strong push to explore high risk areas and go even deeper into offshore fields and a move towards increasing production in already mature reserves is also underway by encouraging investments in these areas.
Director-General of Oil & Gas Dr. Evita Legowo highlighted the offering of flexibility in production sharing contracts in high risk areas (including deepwater) to overcome declining oil production levels and achieve the 1 million barrel of oil per day targets at the recent Center for Energy Sustainability & Economics Production Sharing Contracts forum on 7 July 2010.
Dr Evita announced that whereas the former sharing agreements are normally 85-15 split sharing for oil production, flexibility in production sharing contracts of up to 60-40 split is made available. Such important changes in the industry indeed shows the government’s commitment to increase domestic production.
Thailand is also targeting 20% increase of oil production to 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) next year, helped by more government promotion of exploration and production over the past few years, according to Energy Minister Wannarat Channukul. The rise in oil prices had also encouraged companies across the globe to look for opportunities in Thailand, he added.
Local crude production last year stood at 240,000 bpd, up from 220,000 in 2008. Of the 2009 total, 156,000 bpd were crude oil and the rest was condensate. The government has been promoting exploration by offering new licences over the past few years in order to reduce the expense of imported oil. But Local crude production is still far lower than domestic demand of 700,000 bpd. Oil demand is expected to decline gradually as the government tries to encourage more use of natural gas.
These initiatives by various Southeast Asian governments and strong efforts to increase domestic production, especially from mature reservoirs, tapping into marginal reservoirs and exploring riskier and deeper offshore fields are moves to address looming energy security issues.
The growth in Southeast Asia has been unprecedented, allowing for the need to increase energy resource production. Whereas international exploration of reserves has been one of the oil producing states’ strategies, this does not seem to be enough to meet the production needs. Steep decline rates have compelled key industry decision makers to renew their reservoir management efforts to increase the productivity of fields and wells during their entire economic lives.
The way forward, apart from new discoveries, is to make mature, marginal and other reservoirs more technically and commercially viable to produce.
However, for most current projects, oil recovery is generally lower than expected due to some combination of natural and man-made factors. As a result, about 1/3 to 1/2 of the original oil in place remains left in the reservoir when it reaches its economic limit abandonment. How do you make recovery from such projects substantially enhanced without much effort and expense?
Many techniques and technologies have been developed and invented to enhance recovery. However, the benefits from these technologies may still fall far short of expectations unless the time-tested concepts and practices are clearly understood and judiciously implemented.
All these issues will be put forward Production Optimisation Week Asia 2010 (25-29 July 2010, Kuala Lumpur) to discuss and benchmark with fellow practitioners on strategies, technologies and techniques that have and can be employed to increase recovery rates, production and asset life of a particular well.
The forum is divided into 3 critical disciplines of reservoir, production and completions (drilling) engineering that will allow you to have an integrated plan of attack for operators’ technical and strategic challenges in oil and gas production.
This Forum opens up opportunities emerge to discuss the most interesting case studies from around the world and Asia, in some of its oldest reserves, deepest reservoirs and challenging fields, whilst helping bring operators’ closer to their dream production rates.